Pronóstico de inundaciones en cuencas de respuesta rápida: un estudio de caso de la microcuenca Yacupugro de las laderas del volcán Pichincha en Quito, Ecuador
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23854/07199562.2025611.gutierrezPalabras clave:
microcuencas urbanas, tiempos de concentración, pronóstico de inundaciones, período de retorno, precipitación antecedenteResumen
El presente estudio presenta una metodología de análisis de inundaciones aplicable a cuencas urbanas con tiempos de concentración menores a 20 minutos, siendo el caso de la microcuenca Yacupugro en Ecuador, la cual presenta un tiempo de concentración de 15,22 minutos, una pendiente de 31%, ocasionando inundaciones violentas. El mes más lluvioso es diciembre, seguido de febrero, marzo, noviembre, abril y enero en orden según el número de frecuencia y probabilidad de ocurrencia de inundaciones. Al no existir datos sobre caudales medidos en la microcuenca, se utilizaron métodos hidrometeorológicos indirectos basados en precipitaciones máximas en 24 horas y curvas de intensidad, duración y frecuencia – IDF, permitiendo comparar resultados. La Empresa Pública Metropolitana de Agua Potable y Saneamiento de Quito (EPMAPS) ha construido un canal trapezoidal (h=1,70 m, b=3,80 m y m=1,5) que recoge agua de las microcuencas de los ríos Yacupugro y Sin nombre (S/N), conduce a un reservorio ubicado en la microcuenca San Isidro ubicada a su suroeste, para luego depositarla en el alcantarillado de la EPMAPS. Fue modelado con un caudal total de 7,60 m3/s, correspondiente a una precipitación de 85,3 mm y un periodo de retorno de 100 años. Así, se observó que el canal opera a su máxima capacidad y el reservorio con sus estructuras aplaca este tipo de avenidas sin desbordarse, cumpliendo su función, siempre y cuando dichas estructuras se encuentren limpias. La alerta se basó en el umbral de precipitación previa (agua acumulada en el suelo durante los últimos 10, 7, 5 y 3 días), considerando el tipo de suelo para alcanzar la capacidad de campo llegando a una profundidad de un metro, necesitando absorber al menos 129 mm de agua. Con esto fue posible concluir que el sistema de pronóstico es capaz de iniciar con un aviso anticipado si la precipitación antecedente en 3 a 7 días una vez que supera los 129 mm. De esta manera, se puede pronosticar con bastante anticipación al momento de concentración.
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Esta licencia permite a otros distribuir, mezclar, ajustar y construir a partir de su obra, incluso con fines comerciales, siempre que le sea reconocida la autoría de la creación original. Esta es la licencia más servicial de las ofrecidas. Recomendada para una máxima difusión y utilización de los materiales sujetos a la licencia.
Para ver más información ver en los links siguientes:
