WILDFIRE RISK IN THE WILDLAND–URBAN INTERFACE OF SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. JUAN FERNANDEZ ARCHIPELAGO.
Lessons from the wildland–urban interface of San Juan Bautista, Juan Fernandez Archipelago
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23854/07199562.2026621.jaqueKeywords:
wildfires, vulnerability, exposure, hazard, risk, climate change, wildland–urban interfaceAbstract
Wildfires have increased in frequency and severity in recent decades, becoming one of the most critical threats to biodiversity, ecosystems, and communities worldwide. In insular territories such as the Juan Fernández Archipelago, these events pose severe risks due to their ecological fragility, limited firefighting capacity, and isolation from mainland support. Previous studies have highlighted the vulnerability of island ecosystems to fire but have rarely integrated hazard and vulnerability assessments in a spatially explicit way for the Robinson Crusoe Island context.
This research evaluates wildfire risk in the wildland–urban interface of San Juan Bautista village, combining qualitative and quantitative spatial analyses. The study follows a methodology for hazard assessment based on vegetation susceptibility, climate, topography, fire history, and accessibility, while vulnerability is measured according to exposure of the population, infrastructure, and critical services. Semi-structured interviews with residents complement the quantitative data, integrating local perceptions and knowledge.
The working hypothesis posits that the spatial convergence of highly flammable vegetation, favorable climatic conditions, and limited emergency access increases the probability and potential impact of wildfire events in the study area. Results confirm that 47.05% of the assessed territory is classified as high risk, due to fast-spreading plant species, steep slopes, restricted road access, and insufficient firefighting infrastructure.
It is concluded that San Juan Bautista is highly susceptible to wildfires, and that current territorial planning instruments and community preparedness are insufficient. The study provides technical tools to support land-use planning, prevention strategies, and community-based risk management tailored to insular environments.
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