EXPLANATORY REGRESSION MODEL OF THE CHILEAN HEALTH BUDGET: ANALYSIS OF GEOGRAPHICAL AND TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION

Abstract

This research analyzes the implicit structure of Chile's health budget, taking into account distribution according to geographic and territorial criteria. In this analysis, data was accessed from the general public budget and from budgets specifically allocated to programs targeting women, men, children, adolescents, older adults, and various territorial areas. This methodology used structural analysis as a foundation and regression models to determine estimators of future forecasts. The findings included weighting coefficients, coefficients of determination, and predictable error estimators. Furthermore, the longitudinal analysis conducted at the national level showed an increase in the revenues allocated to the health budget in Chile over the years. Among the findings, it was possible to determine, from the broadest possible perspective, that the budget allocated to the health sector shows continuous growth in real terms, and that the older adult segment influences budget revenues, although this alone does not explain their variability. Furthermore, from a health insurance perspective, the decline in the number of people registered in the private system is confirmed, confirming the fact that there has been a transition from the private to the public health services sector. It was then determined that variables such as the male population, child population, adolescent population, adult population, and older adult population show direct and positive influences on budget allocation, while the variables FONASA beneficiaries, which represent the public sector, and ISAPRE beneficiaries and other beneficiaries, which represent the private sector, show an inverse or negative impact on budget allocation.